Ageing Population, Slowing-down Economic Growth, and Universal Pension Plan

　　基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学基金项目（2013EJB001）;上海市教委、上海市教育发展基金会“晨光计划”基金项目（12CG46）

　　摘　　要：文章根据紧缩理论，运用连续时间养老金收支模型，探讨了在我国实施普享金计划的优势，并提出了一种将现行体系部分转向普享金计划的方法。研究表明，相比较于现行制度，改革后的普享金计划在稳健性、可持续性、公平性和合理性等多个方面都表现出明显的优势，改革不仅有利于改善养老基金的运行状况，也具有政治可行性。实证模拟证实了理论研究结果，改革后的养老金体系支出减少，在整个预测区间都不会陷入支付危机，而且改革后养老金增长速度更快。

　　Based on fiscal retrenchment theory, this paper employs a continuous-time model con- cerning revenues and expenditure of pension to analyze the advantages of the implementation of univer- sal pension system in China, and puts forward an idea about the transformation of some parts of current pension system into universal pension plan. It indicates that, compared with current pension system, u- niversal pension plan has clear advantages of robustness, sustainability, fairness and rationality and the reform not only is beneficial to the improvement of the operation of pension funds but also has political feasibility. The empirical simulation confirms theoretical research results, namely the reduction in the expenditure of pension system after the reform, the solution to payment crisis during the forecast peri- od, and the rapid growth of pension after the reform.

　　关 键 词：紧缩 人口老龄化 经济增速减缓 普享金

　　retrenchment ageing population slowing-down economic growth universal pension

　　分 类 号：F840.67F224.0

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