The Prediction of China＇s Carbon Emission Turning Point Based on the Classic EKC Model

　　基　　金：基金项目：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“我国的碳排放交易市场研究”（11JZD025）;教育部人文社科青年基金青年项目“中国对外贸易隐含碳与减排政策研究：基于MRIO模型的评估”（11YJC790226）;上海海事大学科研基金“我国碳排放交易的机制设计和影响评估研究”（220120114）.

　　摘　　要：本文使用1960—2010年14个碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线呈现典型倒U型国家的面板数据，采用改进的STIRPAT模型考察了碳排放拐点在能源结构、生产结构、技术水平、贸易结构、消费水平、政策等因素影响下的变化情况。研究发现，碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点并未在上述因素的冲击下产生显著变化，该结果证明了经典环境库兹涅茨曲线在拐点预测方面的有效性。在该结论的基础上，本文使用经典环境库兹涅茨模型对中国的碳排放拐点进行了预测，结论表明，在人均GDP增长率为7％的高油价情景下，中国碳排放拐点最早将会在2022年出现。

　　This paper employed the adiusted STIRPAT method to examine the impacts of energy structure, production structure, technology, trade pattern, consumption as well as policies on the turning point of Carbon Emission Kuznets Curve by using the panel data of 14 countries with typical inverted U shape Kuznets curve from 1960 to 2010. The results show that these factors have significant impact on carbon emission per capita but limited impact on the turning point, which shed light on the effectiveness of the turning point prediction through classic EKC model. The prediction of China＇s carbon emission turning point through classic EKC model shows that the earliest year will be 2022 given the GDP per capita growth rate and oil price scenario.

　　关 键 词：碳排放 环境库兹涅茨曲线 STIRPAT模型 拐点预测

　　Carbon Emission, EKC, STIRPAT Mode,Turning Point Prediction

　　分 类 号：F24

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